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The concept and causes of the raw material problem. The global raw material problem and ways to solve it Raw material problem examples

166. Global resource problem and ways to solve it

Global resource problem has a number of similarities with the energy problem, so it is not surprising that they are sometimes considered together as a single fuel and raw material problem. Indeed, the essence of the raw material problem also lies in those growing difficulties in the supply of raw materials, which used to arise at the national or regional levels, and now began to be revealed at the global level. This is evidenced by the global raw materials crisis of the 1970s, which had a negative impact on all raw materials industries, and indeed on the entire world economy. Similar "failures" also occurred later, which testifies to the well-known cyclical nature of development, which is associated with either an increase or decrease in demand for various kinds of raw materials.

But there are certain differences between the raw materials and energy problems, which are explained both by differences in the areas of application of fuel and raw materials, and by the fact that the very number of types of mineral (not to mention non-mineral) raw materials is measured not by units, but by many tens.

The main reason for the emergence of the global raw materials problem should also be considered the constant growth in the volume of mineral raw materials extracted from the bowels of the Earth, which especially accelerated in the second half of the 20th century. Suffice it to cite data that only in 1960-1980. 50% of copper and zinc, 55% of iron ore, 60% of diamonds, 65% of nickel, potash salts and phosphorites and about 80% of bauxites have been extracted from the total volume of their extraction since the beginning of the century. As a result, the depletion of many basins and deposits began, the depletion of many used ores accelerated, and the amount of waste rock extracted from the bowels increased. This clearly negative trend is often illustrated by the example of copper ore mined in the USA, Zambia and some other countries. Thus, in the copper mines of the US state of Montana, the copper content in the ore decreased from 30% at the initial stage of development to 0.5%. This process has affected different types of mining and metallurgical, mining and chemical and other types of raw materials.

Simultaneously with the growth of production, in many cases, the mining and geological conditions for the occurrence and extraction of minerals began to deteriorate. And the desire to somehow compensate for this deterioration by developing rich deposits in new raw material areas, in turn, led to a noticeable increase in the territorial gap between the centers of production and consumption, which means an inevitable increase in transportation costs. We have already mentioned the extremely increased dependence of the countries of Western Europe, Japan, and even the United States on imports of many important types of mineral raw materials. (Tables 101, 102). To this we can add the deterioration of the environmental situation, which is always associated with the predominance of extensive methods of raw materials management.

Rice. 153. Provision with minerals for the XXI century. (according to L. V. Towson)

One of the important consequences of these processes was a general decline in the supply of mineral resources, including at the global level. Of course, this requires a differentiated approach to certain types of raw materials. Calculations of security have been and are being made by many specialists, and the discrepancies between them are often quite large. Nevertheless, acquaintance with them is of considerable interest. (Fig. 153).

Let us now turn to a description of the ways to solve the global raw material problem. Based on the study of the recommendations of international forums, including the conference in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and the proposals of certain authoritative experts, it can be concluded that the following are among such paths.

Firstly, the further continuation of geological prospecting and geological exploration in order to increase the explored reserves of mineral raw materials. It can be seen that this important task is being solved quite successfully. Thus, the explored reserves of bauxite only in 1945-1985. increased by 36 times, while production - by about 10 times. Explored reserves of copper over the same period increased by 7 times, and production - by 3 times. The reserves of phosphorites, potash salts, and many other non-metallic minerals have increased tenfold. Particularly noteworthy are the prospects opening up in connection with the exploration and subsequent development of minerals on the shelf, the continental slope and the deep-water bottom of the World Ocean.

Secondly, a more complete and, most importantly, complex use of mineral resources extracted from the bowels of the Earth. Recall that the great role of this path as early as the late 1930s. Academician A.E. Fersman spoke.

Thirdly, a more consistent and vigorous implementation of the policy of resource saving and reduction of the overall material intensity of production processes.

Fourth, the wider use of secondary raw materials, which in many developed countries has already become an important element of rational environmental management.

Fifth, the replacement of a part of natural raw materials and materials derived from it with more economical artificial materials, which include plastics, ceramics, fiberglass, etc., which have already found wide application.

For Russia, as a country with a huge natural resource potential, at first glance, the problem of raw materials should not be relevant. In general, this was the case as long as the country's economy developed mainly along an extensive path. But lately, its resource-based economy has become more and more likely to experience various kinds of crisis phenomena. Deposits are depleted, the cost of extracting raw materials is growing (it is no coincidence that N. N. Moiseev described Russian resources as the most expensive in the world), and the current and forecast resource supply is declining. Therefore, for Russia, it is not only important, but also necessary, that a transition to resource saving and more efficient development of the raw materials sectors of the economy.

Mankind is getting bigger every year. This is due to the growth of the world's population and the intensive development of technology, which leads to a constantly growing level of energy consumption. Despite the use of nuclear, alternative and hydropower, people continue to extract the lion's share of fuel from the bowels of the Earth. Oil, natural gas and coal are non-renewable natural energy resources, by now their reserves have decreased to a critical level.

Beginning of the End

The globalization of the energy problem of mankind began in the 70s of the last century, when the era of cheap oil ended. The shortage and a sharp rise in the price of this type of fuel provoked a serious crisis in the global economy. And although its cost has decreased over time, the volumes are steadily declining, so the energy and raw material problem of mankind is becoming more acute.

For example, only in the period from the 60s to the 80s of the twentieth century, the world volume of coal production amounted to 40%, oil - 75%, natural gas - 80% of the total volume of these resources used since the beginning of the century.

Despite the fact that fuel shortages began in the 1970s and it turned out that the energy problem is a global problem for mankind, the forecasts did not provide for an increase in its consumption. It was planned that by the year 2000 the volume of mining would increase 3 times. Subsequently, of course, these plans were reduced, but as a result of the extremely wasteful exploitation of resources that lasted for decades, today they are practically gone.

The main geographical aspects of the energy problem of mankind

One of the reasons for the growing shortage of fuel is the aggravation of the conditions for its extraction and, as a result, the rise in the cost of this process. If a few decades ago natural resources lay on the surface, today we have to constantly increase the depth of mines, gas and oil wells. The mining and geological conditions of the occurrence of energy resources in the old industrial regions of North America, Western Europe, Russia and Ukraine have deteriorated especially noticeably.

Taking into account the geographical aspects of the energy and raw material problems of mankind, it must be said that their solution lies in expanding the resource frontiers. It is necessary to develop new areas with easier mining and geological conditions. Thus, the cost of fuel production can be reduced. However, it should be taken into account that the overall capital intensity of extracting energy resources in new places is, as a rule, much higher.

Economic and geopolitical aspects of the energy and raw material problems of mankind

The depletion of natural fuel reserves has led to fierce competition in the economic, political and geopolitical spheres. Giant fuel corporations are engaged in the division of fuel and energy resources and the redistribution of spheres of influence in this industry, which leads to constant price fluctuations in the world market for gas, coal and oil. The instability of the situation seriously exacerbates the energy problem of mankind.

Global energy security

This concept came into use at the beginning of the 21st century. The principles of such a security strategy provide for a reliable, long-term and environmentally acceptable energy supply, the prices for which will be justified and suit the countries both exporting and importing fuel.

The implementation of this strategy is possible only if the causes of the energy problem of mankind are eliminated and practical measures are aimed at further providing the world economy with both traditional fuels and energy from alternative sources. Moreover, special attention should be paid to the development of alternative energy.

Energy saving policy

In times of cheap fuel, many countries of the world have developed a very resource-intensive economy. First of all, this phenomenon was observed in states rich in mineral resources. The list was topped by the Soviet Union, USA, Canada, China and Australia. At the same time, in the USSR, the volume of equivalent fuel consumption was several times greater than in America.

This state of affairs required the urgent introduction of an energy conservation policy in the domestic, industrial, transport and other sectors of the economy. Taking into account all aspects of the energy and raw materials problems of mankind, technologies aimed at reducing the specific energy intensity of the GDP of these countries began to be developed and implemented, and the entire economic structure of the world economy was being rebuilt.

Successes and failures

The most notable successes in the field of energy conservation have been achieved by the economically developed countries of the West. In the first 15 years, they managed to reduce the energy intensity of their GDP by 1/3, which led to a reduction in their share in world energy consumption from 60 to 48 percent. To date, this trend continues, and GDP growth in the West outpaces the growing volumes of fuel consumption.

Things are much worse in Central and Eastern Europe, China and the CIS countries. The energy intensity of their economy is declining very slowly. But the leaders of the economic anti-rating are developing countries. For example, in most African and Asian countries, the loss of associated fuel (natural gas and oil) ranges from 80 to 100 percent.

Realities and prospects

The energy problem of mankind and ways to solve it today are of concern to the whole world. To improve the existing situation, various technical and technological innovations are being introduced. In order to save energy, industrial and municipal equipment is being improved, more economical cars are being produced, etc.

Primary macroeconomic measures include a gradual change in the very structure of consumption of gas, coal and oil with the prospect of increasing the share of non-traditional and renewable energy resources.

To successfully solve the energy problem of mankind, it is necessary to pay special attention to the development and implementation of fundamentally new technologies available on the modern

Nuclear power

One of the most promising areas in the field of energy supply is a new generation of nuclear reactors that have already been put into operation in some developed countries. Nuclear scientists are once again actively discussing the topic of reactors powered by fast neurons, which, as was once envisioned, will become a new and much more efficient wave of nuclear energy. However, their development was discontinued, but now this issue has become relevant again.

Use of MHD generators

Direct conversion of heat energy into electricity without steam boilers and turbines allows the implementation of magnetohydrodynamic generators. The development of this promising direction began in the early 70s of the last century. In 1971, the first experimental-industrial MHD with a capacity of 25,000 kW was launched in Moscow.

The main advantages are:

• high efficiency;
• environmental friendliness (there are no harmful emissions into the atmosphere);
• instant start.

Cryogenic turbogenerator

The principle of operation of a cryogenic generator is that the rotor is cooled due to which the effect of superconductivity is obtained. The indisputable advantages of this unit include high efficiency, low weight and dimensions.

A prototype of a cryogenic turbogenerator was created back in the Soviet era, and now similar developments are being carried out in Japan, the USA and other developed countries.

Hydrogen

The use of hydrogen as a fuel has great prospects. According to many experts, this technology will help solve the most important global problems of mankind - the energy and raw materials problem. First of all, hydrogen fuel will become an alternative to natural energy resources in mechanical engineering. The first was created by the Japanese company Mazda back in the early 90s, a new engine was developed for it. The experiment turned out to be quite successful, which confirms the promise of this direction.

Electrochemical generators

These are fuel cells that also run on hydrogen. Fuel is passed through polymer membranes with a special substance - a catalyst. As a result of a chemical reaction with oxygen, hydrogen itself is converted into water, releasing chemical energy during combustion, which is converted into electrical energy.

Fuel cell engines are characterized by the highest efficiency (over 70%), which is twice that of conventional power plants. Plus, they are easy to use, silent during operation and undemanding to repair.

Until recently, fuel cells had a narrow scope, for example, in space research. But now, work on the introduction of electrochemical generators is being actively carried out in most economically developed countries, among which Japan occupies the first place. The total power of these units in the world is measured in millions of kW. For example, in New York and Tokyo already operate power plants on such elements, and the German automaker Daimler-Benz was the first to create a working prototype of a car with an engine operating on this principle.

Controlled thermonuclear fusion

For several decades, research has been carried out in the field of thermonuclear energy. Atomic energy is based on the reaction of nuclear fission, and thermonuclear energy is based on the reverse process - the nuclei of hydrogen isotopes (deuterium, tritium) merge. In the process of nuclear combustion of 1 kg of deuterium, the amount of energy released is 10 million times greater than that obtained from coal. The result is truly impressive! That is why thermonuclear energy is considered one of the most promising areas in solving the problems of the global energy deficit.

Forecasts

Today, there are various scenarios for the development of the situation in the global energy sector in the future. According to some of them, by 2060 global energy consumption in oil equivalent will increase to 20 billion tons. At the same time, in terms of consumption, the developing countries will overtake the developed ones.

By the middle of the 21st century, the amount of fossil energy resources should decrease significantly, but the share of renewable energy sources, in particular wind, solar, geothermal and tidal sources, will increase.

The use of fuel, energy and raw materials on our planet is growing at a significant pace. Today, an industrial worker is armed with about 100 horsepower in the process of work. About 2 kW of energy is produced for each inhabitant of the planet, and 10 kW are needed to ensure generally recognized standards of quality of life. This figure has been achieved only in some of the most developed countries of the world. In this regard, and also in view of the further growth of the world's population, the irrational use of energy, raw materials, uneven distribution of fuel and energy resources among different regions of the world, their production and consumption will continue to increase.

However, the energy resources of the planet are not unlimited. At the planned rate of development of nuclear energy, the total reserves of uranium will be exhausted in the first decade of the 21st century, but if energy consumption occurs at the energy level of the thermal barrier, then all reserves of non-renewable energy sources will burn out in 80 years. Therefore, from the point of view of material content, the main reason for the aggravation of the fuel and energy problem is the increase in the involvement of natural resources in economic circulation and their limited number on our planet. From the point of view of the social form, such a reason is the relations of monopolistic property, which determine the predatory exploitation of natural resources.

Huge losses of energy resources took place in the costly economy of the former USSR and the countries of Eastern Europe. And now even in the CIS countries, on average, twice as much raw materials are spent on the production of a unit of national income than in the developed countries of the West.

The main ways to solve the fuel, energy and raw materials problems

From the point of view of the material content of the social mode of production are: - the rapid development and use of such basic types of renewable energy as solar and wind, ocean and river hydropower. Structural changes in the use of existing non-renewable types of energy, namely: an increase in the share of coal in the energy balance and a decrease in the share of oil and gas, since the reserves of the latter on the planet are much smaller, and their value for the chemical industry is much greater; -- Creation of environmentally friendly coal energy, which would work without emissions of harmful gases. All this requires large expenditures by the state for environmental purposes. The United States has already created an environmentally friendly coal-fired energy country. Therefore, the share of coal in the US energy balance increased from 12.5% ​​to 23%, the share of oil decreased from 45% to 41%, and gas - from 56% to 21%; -- development of specific measures to comply with environmental standards: standards for clean air, water basins, rational energy consumption, increasing the efficiency of their energy systems; -- study of reserves of all resources using the latest achievements of scientific and technological revolution. As you know, a relatively shallow layer of the earth's crust, up to 5 km, has been explored today. Therefore, it is important to discover new resources at a greater depth of the Earth, as well as at the bottom of the World Ocean; -- intensive development by developing countries of their own raw material economy, including the processing industries of raw materials. To solve the problem of hunger in these countries, it is necessary to expand the area under crops, introduce advanced agricultural technology, highly productive animal husbandry, high-yielding crops, effective fertilizers and plant protection products, etc.; -- search for effective levers for managing the process of population growth in order to stabilize it at the level of 10 billion people by the beginning of the 22nd century;

Cessation of deforestation, especially tropical, ensuring their rational use; - the formation of an ecological worldview among people, which would make it possible to consider all economic, political, legal, social, ideological, national, personnel issues both within individual countries and at the international level, primarily from the point of view of solving environmental problems, implement at all levels the principles of their priority; -- comprehensive development of legislation on environmental protection, including waste. Thus, in the United States, France and other countries, the government is obliged to provide enterprises and organizations with technical and financial assistance in processing waste, extracting valuable components from them, conducting research in this area, disseminating best practices, etc. For this purpose, tax incentives are used. , subsidies are provided, tariffs for the transportation of secondary raw materials are reduced, etc.; -- Increasing environmental investments.

Causes of the Global Commodity Problem

The main reason for the emergence of the global raw materials problem should be considered the constant growth in the volume of mineral raw materials extracted from the bowels of the Earth, which especially accelerated in the second half of the 20th century. Suffice it to cite data that only in 1960-1980. 50% of copper and zinc, 55% of iron ore, 60% of diamonds, 65% of nickel, potash salts and phosphorites and about 80% of bauxites have been extracted from the total volume of their extraction since the beginning of the century. As a result, the depletion of many basins and deposits began, the depletion of many used ores accelerated, and the amount of waste rock extracted from the bowels increased. This clearly negative trend is often illustrated by the example of copper ore mined in the USA, Zambia and some other countries. Thus, in the copper mines of the US state of Montana, the copper content in the ore decreased from 30% at the initial stage of development to 0.5%. This process has affected different types of mining and metallurgical, mining and chemical and other types of raw materials.

Simultaneously with the growth of production, in many cases, the mining and geological conditions for the occurrence and extraction of minerals began to deteriorate. And the desire to somehow compensate for this deterioration by developing rich deposits in new raw material areas, in turn, led to a noticeable increase in the territorial gap between the centers of production and consumption, which means an inevitable increase in transportation costs. Researchers note the high dependence of the countries of Western Europe, Japan and the United States on the import of many important types of mineral raw materials.

Table 1. US Dependence on Imports of Certain Minerals

To this we can add the deterioration of the environmental situation, which is always associated with the predominance of extensive methods of raw materials management.

At the end of the 60s. The Club of Rome has set itself the goal of exploring the immediate and long-term consequences of large-scale decisions related to the development paths chosen by mankind. It was proposed to use a systematic approach to study global issues, adopting the method of mathematical computer modeling. The results of the study were published in 1972 in the first report to the Club of Rome under the title "The Limits to Growth". The authors of the report concluded that if current trends in population growth, industrialization, pollution, food production and resource depletion continue, then over the next century the world will come to the limits of growth, there will be an unexpected and uncontrolled decline in population and a sharp decrease in the volume of production.

However, they believed that growth trends could be reversed and economic and environmental stability sustainable in the long run. And this state of global balance must be established at a level that will satisfy the basic material needs of each person and give everyone equal opportunities to realize their personal potential.

The Meadows world model was built specifically to study five major global processes:

rapid industrialization,

population growth,

Increasing food shortages

Depletion of non-renewable resources

degradation of the natural environment.

The model they built, like any other, is imperfect, overly simplified and remains incomplete. Understanding the preliminary nature of our work, we still considered it important to publish the results of the model and our conclusions now.

This model is already developed enough to benefit decision makers. In addition, it seems to us that the main trends that have emerged in the behavior of the model are of such a fundamental and general nature that it is unlikely that our broad conclusions will be seriously refuted by further research.

Here are the findings:

1. If the current trends of population growth, industrialization, pollution, food production and resource depletion continue, the world will come to the limits of growth over the next century. The result is likely to be an unexpected and uncontrolled decline in population and a sharp drop in output.

2. Growth trends can be reversed and long-term sustainable economic and environmental stability can be achieved. The state of global equilibrium can be set at a level that allows you to meet the basic material needs of each person and gives each person equal opportunities to realize their personal potential.

If the peoples of the world choose not the first, but the second path, then the sooner they start working to embark on it, the greater their chances of success.

All components of the described study - population, food production, pollution of the natural environment, the consumption of non-renewable resources - are growing. Every year they increase in a pattern that mathematicians call exponential growth. Exponential growth of a value means that it increases by a fixed number of times over a fixed period of time.

Exponential growth is a common process in biological, financial, and many other systems. Exponential growth is a dynamic phenomenon. This means that the quantities in this process change with time. When many differences in values ​​in a system grow at the same time and they are all in a complex relationship, the analysis of the reasons for the growth and the future behavior of the system becomes very difficult.

Over the past 30 years, MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) has been developing a new method for the dynamic study of complex systems. This method was called system dynamics. It is based on the assertion that the behavior of a system often depends both on its structure - a set of closed, interconnected, often delayed interactions between its constituent elements - and on the elements themselves. The model of the world described by Meadows is built on the principles of system dynamics.

Extrapolating existing trends is a time-honored way to look into the future (especially the near future, and especially if the quantities in question are not heavily influenced by other trends observed in the system). Of course, none of the five studied factors can be called independent. Each is constantly interacting with the others.

Population cannot increase if there is no food, food production increases with capital growth, capital growth requires resources, wasted resources increase pollution, environmental pollution affects population growth and food production. In addition, each of these factors after a long time begins to experience the impact of feedback.

In this first model of the world, only the qualitative characteristics of the behavior of the “population-capital” system were studied. Behavior characteristics are understood as certain tendencies of system variables (population, for example, or the level of environmental pollution) to change over time.

However, it is imperative to have at least some understanding of the causes of growth, its limits, and the possible behavior of the model when it approaches these limits.

All estimates in the model (population, capital, environmental pollution, etc.) are calculated from the values ​​of 1900. From 1900 to 1970, all variables generally corresponded to the actual values. The population, which in 1900 was up to 1.6 billion people, increased by 1970 to 3.5 billion.

Although the birth rate is slowly falling, the death rate is falling faster (especially after 1940) and the rate of population growth is increasing. The volume of production of industrial products, food and services per capita is growing exponentially. Resource stocks in 1970 were nearly 95% of their 1900 levels, but were beginning to decline ominously as population and industrial output continued to grow.

Rice. 1 Meadows Model

From the behavior of the model, it can be seen that approaching the limit values ​​and collapse are inevitable, and the reason for this in this case is the depletion of non-renewable resources. The volume of industrial capital reaches a level where a huge influx of resources is required.

The very process of this growth depletes the reserves of available raw materials. With rising prices for raw materials and the depletion of deposits, more and more funds are required to extract resources and, therefore, investments in future growth become less and less.

Finally, capital investment cannot compensate for resource depletion; then the industrial base collapses, and with it the system of services and agricultural production dependent on industry (production of fertilizers, pesticides, research laboratories, and especially the production of energy necessary for mechanization).

In the short term, the situation will become seriously complicated, because the population is still growing due to the delay due to the age structure of the population and the imperfection of regulatory measures. Eventually, the population declines as deaths rise as a result of lack of food and medical services.

It makes no sense to accurately calculate the time of these events, since the level of aggregation of the model is high and there are many uncertain factors in it. However, it is important that growth stops around 2100.

In each doubtful case, the experts tried to derive estimates with maximum optimism, neglecting random temporal events, such as wars or epidemics, which could end growth even earlier than the model predicts. In other words, growth in the model takes longer than it might in the real world.

It can be said with some certainty that unless fundamental changes take place in the modern world, the growth of population and industrial production will stop no later than the beginning of the next century.

To test the resource stock results, the researchers doubled the estimate for 1900, keeping all other assumptions as they were in the normal run. Then the level of industrialization turned out to be higher, because, under this assumption, the reserves of resources are not depleted so quickly.

But the growing industrial enterprises pollute the environment at such a rate that the load on the natural absorbing mechanism turns out to be the limit. Pollution levels rise very rapidly, causing an immediate increase in mortality and a reduction in food production. And by the end of the run, the resource reserves are completely depleted, despite the double value of their initial value. Will the world system necessarily grow in the future, and then come to a catastrophe, to a gloomy semi-impoverished existence? Yes, assuming that our current way of life does not change. We have ample evidence of human ingenuity and social flexibility. The system holds the potential for many promising changes, some of which have already taken place: the Green Revolution has increased agricultural productivity in agrarian countries; methods of birth control are spreading rapidly.

There are many examples in the history of mankind that prove that a person does not know how to live within limited physical limits. But there are also examples of successfully overcoming borders, and this type of behavior has become part of the cultural traditions of many peoples of the modern world. Over the past 300 years, humanity has accumulated an impressive stock of tremendous technological advances that have allowed pushing back the limits of demographic and economic growth. The last stage in the history of many countries has been so successful that people naturally hope to continue to break through the natural limits with the help of technology.

The report of the Club of Rome gives an example of solving the resource problem: “starting from 1975, the level of pollution from all sources will decrease by 4 times. Finally, let us assume that the average yield per hectare will double worldwide. In addition, suppose that since 1975 all countries have adopted reliable birth control measures.”

All this means that we are trying in one way or another to bypass the limits of growth by introducing a system of technological measures into each sector of the model. The simulated world system uses nuclear energy, regenerates the resource and develops the deepest deposits of raw materials, captures all pollutants, collects unimaginable crops from the fields, only children are born in it, the appearance of which their parents passionately desire. And as a result, growth stops around 2100 anyway.

Three simultaneous crises are to blame for this. Land pressure causes erosion and food production is reduced. The high level of well-being of the population, although it does not exceed the current level of well-being in the United States, causes a significant depletion of resources. Pollution rises, falls, then rises sharply again, causing food production to drop again and mortality to rise. Technological solutions can only prolong the period of demographic and industrial growth, but not push back its final limits.

Due to the many uncertain factors, the accepted approximations and the limitations of the world model, it does not make sense to consider in detail the entire spectrum of possible catastrophes. We emphasize once again: no computer result predicts anything. We do not at all think that the real world will behave according to the graphs obtained from the work of the model, especially when it comes to collapse.

The model shows the dynamics of only the “physical” aspects of human activity. It suggests that social variables - income distribution, traditional family composition, choice of goods, products and services - will follow the current "line of conduct". This line, reflecting human values, was developed in the growth phase of civilization. And, of course, when the population and output start to fall, it will need to be seriously reconsidered.

All runs of the model contain the implicit assertion that population and capital growth will continue until it reaches certain, “natural” limits. This statement, obviously, should also become the main provision in the real modern system of human values.

Assuming that the growth of population and capital cannot be stopped arbitrarily until it reaches its own limits, we cannot develop a system of measures that will avoid catastrophe. "Technological optimists" hope that technology can destroy or push back the limits of population and capital growth. The Meadows world model showed that technological solutions to the problem of resource depletion, pollution, food shortages do not solve the main problem - exponential growth in the final complex system. Attempts to give even the most optimistic assessment of technological possibilities do not prevent the decline in population and production and do not avert the catastrophe that should occur by 2100.

Before embarking on a large-scale implementation of a new technology, one must learn to anticipate and prevent social consequences. Technology can change very quickly, but political and social institutions change slowly. In addition, reforms here almost never anticipate the demands of society, but are carried out only in response to them.

We must also remember about social delay. It is necessary to enable society to get used to change or prepare for it. Most of these delays - of a physical or social nature - reduce the stability of the world system and increase the likelihood of extreme forms in its behavior. Their influence becomes critical, because growth processes increase the additional load on the system. Mankind is not yet able to regulate the pace of technological progress. And there may be problems that do not have a technical solution, or a complex of interrelated problems will arise that will put an end to the growth of population and capital.

The technological struggle against natural mechanisms by which the environment resists growth processes has been so successful in the past that the entire human culture was based on transcending limits, instead of teaching man to live within them.

Man still has a chance to determine the limits of growth and stop near them, weakening the forces that cause the growth of capital and population, or developing countermeasures, or undertaking both. Countermeasures may not be very pleasant. They are certain to change the social and economic structure deeply rooted in human culture over long centuries of growth.

But the only alternative to this is to wait until the technology is more costly than society can afford, or until the negative effects of technological solutions themselves stop growth, or until problems arise that have no technological solutions. In any of these cases, it will no longer depend on us at what line to stop

Raw material problem

Remark 1

There are common features between the raw materials and energy problems, therefore they are often considered as one fuel and raw materials problem. They concern the provision of mankind with fuel and raw materials. The problem of providing countries with raw materials had a certain acuteness before, but it arose at the regional levels. However, the commodity crisis of the 1970s showed its global scale.

The concept of "raw materials" in itself is very capacious. These can be materials and objects of labor that have already undergone some kind of change and are subject to further processing, for example, oil, ore, wood chips, wool, plastics, resins, etc. In general, all raw materials are divided into industrial and agricultural by origin, but more often In general, raw materials are associated with mineral resources. Mineral resources or minerals are nothing but the basis of the existence of human civilization. With the rapid development of industry, the need for mineral resources is increasing, the rate of their extraction is growing, and the resources themselves in the bowels of the Earth are limited. Over time, they will simply be exhausted.

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The emergence of a raw material problem is associated with a number of reasons:

1. Growth in volumes of mineral raw materials extracted from the bowels of the Earth;
2. Depletion of basins and deposits;
3. Depletion of many ores with useful substances;
4. Limited explored hydrocarbon reserves;
5. Deterioration of mining and geological conditions for the occurrence of minerals;
6. Territorial gap between the areas of extraction of raw materials and areas of its consumption;
7. The discovery of new deposits in areas with difficult natural conditions.

The consequence of these reasons was a general decrease in the supply of mineral resources at the global level, while it must be borne in mind that a differentiated approach is needed for certain types of raw materials. Many specialists make resource endowment calculations, but there are often large discrepancies between them. Nevertheless, in the age of the scientific and technological revolution, it is important to rationally use mineral raw materials, to more fully extract minerals from the bowels of the earth. For example, existing modern methods of oil extraction have a recovery factor of $0.25$-$0.45$, which means that most of the geological reserves remain in the subsoil. With an increase in the oil recovery factor by at least $1$%, it gives a great economic effect. The "resource wastefulness" of the $20th century has moved on to the era of rational consumption of resources.

This transition is associated with two main points:

1. Thanks to the energy crisis in the $70s, the development of energy-saving technologies and the transition of the world economy to an intensive path of development began. The production and non-production sectors have significantly reduced energy costs, resulting in savings in hydrocarbon raw materials;
2. Of all the raw materials mined on the planet, only $20$% goes to the production of finished products, and the rest of the rock mass accumulates in dumps. Over many decades, billions of tons of rocks have accumulated. There are also billions of tons of ash waste from power plants and slag waste from metallurgical enterprises. Much of this waste can be used to obtain new substances, for example, for the production of a number of metals, chemical products, building materials such as brick, cement, lime, etc. Hence, this second point is associated with a decrease in “direct” resource waste.

energy problem

The essence of the problem is that at present and in the future humanity must be provided with fuel and energy. The energy problem on the planet has appeared because the most important organic and mineral resources are limited, and the use of fuel and energy resources is growing at a rapid pace.

Remark 2

Minor energy crises also occurred in the pre-industrial economy. In the $18th century in England, for example, forest resources were exhausted, and the country had to switch to coal. This problem was local, but it became global when the global energy crisis broke out. These were the $70s of the $XX$ century. Oil prices have risen sharply, and the world economy has experienced serious difficulties.

I must say that the difficulties that arose were overcome, but the very problem of fuel and energy supply retained its significance. In the process of industrial production, each worker in our time uses energy equal to about $ 100 horsepower. And one of the indicators of the quality of life of the planet's population is the amount of energy produced per person. According to generally accepted norms per capita, it is necessary to produce $10$ kWh, and only about $2$ kWh is produced.

Some highly developed countries of the world have reached universally recognized standards. Considering that, on the one hand, the population of the planet is growing, and, on the other hand, energy and raw materials are used irrationally, fuel and energy resources are distributed unevenly across the countries of the world, it follows that their production and consumption will continue to increase. Unfortunately, the Earth's energy resources are not unlimited. At those rates, for example, which are planned in the nuclear power industry, the total reserves of uranium ores will be exhausted in the first half of the $XXI$ century.

If we talk about the material content, then the cause of the fuel and energy problem is associated with the growing involvement of natural resources in economic circulation, given their limited nature. The costly economy of the former socialist countries was associated with huge losses of energy resources. Even today, the CIS countries spend $2 times more raw materials per unit of production than the countries of Western Europe. The increase in the production of fuel resources continues. Huge oil and gas fields have been discovered and exploited in Western Siberia, in Alaska, on the shelf of the North Sea, which in turn has led to a deterioration in the environmental situation.

Remark 3

Experts calculated that the explored reserves of coal at the current level of its production should be enough for $325$ years, the explored reserves of gas will be enough for $62$ of a year, and oil for $37$ of years. With the discovery of new energy deposits, the pessimistic forecasts of the $70$s changed to optimistic views, which were based on more up-to-date information.

Problem Solving Ways

In solving the energy problem, there are two ways - extensive and intensive way.

When solving a problem extensive This requires a further increase in energy production and an absolute increase in energy consumption. For the modern world economy, this path is relevant, because in absolute terms, by $2003, world energy consumption increased from $12 to $15.2 billion tons of standard fuel. Countries such as China, which has already reached the limit of its own energy production, or the UK, which is faced with the prospect of reducing this production. The development of events in this way forces countries to look for ways to use energy resources more rationally.

Solution intense way is to increase production per unit of energy consumption.

The energy crisis accelerated the adoption of energy-saving technologies and restructured the economy, which largely mitigated the effects of the energy crisis. At present, one ton of saved energy costs $3$-$4$ times cheaper than an additional ton produced. By the end of the XX$ century, the energy intensity of the economy of such countries as the USA and Germany decreased by $2$ and $2.5$ respectively.

For example:

1. Energy intensity mechanical engineering$8$-$10$ times lower than in metallurgy and fuel and energy complex;
2. Energy-intensive industries were moved to developing countries. Energy-saving restructuring of the economy gave up to $20$% savings in fuel and energy resources per unit of GDP;
3. Improving the technological processes of equipment functioning is an important reserve for increasing the efficiency of energy use. The direction in this case is very capital-intensive, but the cost of it is $2$-$3$ times less than the cost of increasing the production of fuel and energy.

Remark 4

Oddly enough, such states as Russia, China, India, Ukraine tend to develop energy-intensive industries - metallurgy, the chemical industry - using outdated technologies.

Growth in energy consumption in these countries is expected both due to an increase in living standards and due to the lack of sufficient funds in some of them to reduce the energy intensity of the economy. For many years to come, the solution to the global energy problem will depend on energy consumption per unit of output. Today, the global energy problem in understanding the lack of energy resources in the world does not exist. The problem of providing energy resources in a modified form remains.

What are the ways to solve the global raw materials problem.

1. Carry out geological prospecting and exploration work. Their goal is to increase the explored reserves of mineral raw materials. The solution to this problem is going quite well. For example, the explored reserves of bauxite in the post-war period increased by $36$ times, while production increased only by $10$ times. Over the same period, the explored reserves of copper increased by $7$, and its production increased by $3$. The explored reserves of non-metallic minerals - phosphorites, potassium salts, etc. - have increased. Search and exploration of raw materials on the continental shelf, the continental slope, and even on the deep-water bottom of the World Ocean are becoming promising;
2. Full and integrated use of mineral resources extracted from the bowels of the planet;
3. Reducing the material intensity of production processes and implementing a resource-saving policy;
4. An important element of rational nature management should be the widespread use of secondary raw materials;
5. Replacing natural raw materials with artificial materials that are not inferior in quality to natural ones - these are plastics, ceramics, fiberglass and other materials.

Remark 5

Russia also needs this transition to resource conservation, despite the fact that it has a huge natural resource potential. The country's economy, which developed extensively, has recently begun to experience crisis phenomena. Deposits of natural resources are being depleted, the cost of their extraction is growing, and the forecast and actual resource availability of the country is decreasing.